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Ep. 5 | Pendulum Shifts: Cyclical versus Secular Change

June 30, 2022

We have noted that 2022 has been a year of uncertainty. Investors have been forced to face changing conditions in both the capital markets and the underlying economy. We see that this uncertainty is yielding to some identifiable trends that are dominating investor preferences and permeating economic discussions. We feel the stock market volatility and downdraft reflect both an uncertain future and a picture that has some potentially negative implications. Today, there is an absence of a consensus view of our economic future because it is unclear whether changing dynamics are of a shorter or longer-term nature.

In this episode we attempt to move beyond uncertainty to a more convicted view of what lies ahead. We discuss a number of changing dynamics that all have important implications for profit margins, corporate earnings, and ultimately, stock and bond prices.

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Crawford Investment Counsel Inc. (“Crawford”) is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Crawford including our investment strategies and objectives can be found in our ADV Part 2, which is available upon request.

This material is distributed for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed are those of Crawford. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Forward looking statements cannot be guaranteed. There is no guarantee of the future performance of any Crawford investment strategy. Material presented has been derived from sources considered to be accurate and reliable, but makes no representation thereof and accepts no liability or any loss arising from use or reliance herein. Nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy, sell or hold any securities, other investments or to adopt any investment strategy.


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