April reminded investors just how quickly sentiment can shift. From the announcement of sweeping new tariffs to a negative GDP print and better-than-expected job growth, the month delivered a mix of news that drove elevated volatility across both stock and bond markets.
The severity of the tariffs took the markets by surprise and set off a dramatic decline in stocks and a sharp rise in bond yields. At one point, the stock market briefly dipped into bear market territory before rebounding later in the month, largely due to President Trump’s 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs and less threatening tone toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Amid the noise, recession fears rose, and the economic outlook dimmed as first-quarter GDP came in at -0.3%, driven in part by front-loaded imports ahead of tariff implementation. Yet the addition of 177,000 new jobs underscored continued labor market strength and helped stabilize sentiment. Recession odds have risen, and we will soon find out if the Trump tariff shock is sufficient to tip the economy into negative mode.
These conflicting signals point to what we see as a possible market backdrop as we move forward defined by slower economic growth, structurally higher interest rates, and reduced fiscal and monetary thrust. In an environment such as this, quality is not just a desirable trait, it is essential. We continue to believe companies with durable business models with pricing power, strong balance sheets, and operational discipline are best positioned to weather volatility and deliver strong results over full market cycles. That philosophy underpins everything we do, from stock selection to portfolio construction, and it continues to serve our investors well.
We are pleased to report that Crawford strategies are performing well in the current environment. This is a testament to the benefits of our process and philosophy in navigating uncertain markets. While macro uncertainty persists, we believe the resilience of our investment approach and the companies we invest in will remain a source of confidence and long-term value.
Crawford Investment Counsel (“Crawford”) is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Crawford’s investment advisory services can be found in its Form ADV Part 2 and/or Form CRS, which is available upon request. The opinions expressed are those of Crawford as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
CRA-2505-5
The opinions expressed herein are those of Crawford Investment Counsel and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. This document may contain certain information that constitutes “forward-looking statements” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “expect,” “will,” “hope,” “forecast,” “intend,” “target,” “believe,” and/or comparable terminology. No assurance, representation, or warranty is made by any person that any of Crawford’s assumptions, expectations, objectives, and/or goals will be achieved. Nothing contained in this document may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance, or representation as to the future. Crawford Investment Counsel is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training.
These Perspectives on Macroeconomics
600 Galleria Parkway
Suite 1650
Atlanta, Georgia 30339
Main: 770.859.0045
Fax: 770.859.0049
Email: info@crawfordinvestment.com
Copyright © 2025 | Crawford Investment Counsel, Inc. | All Rights Reserved.
Crawford Investment Counsel, Inc. (“Crawford”) is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Crawford Investment Counsel, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2A and our Form CRS.
Web Site Development by: Goodwood Consulting
You are now leaving the Crawford Investment Counsel website and accessing the
Crawford Investment Funds website.
You are now leaving theCrawford Investment Funds website
and accessing the Crawford Investment Counsel website.
To help us personalize the site to your needs,
please select one of the following that best describes you.
You are now entering the area of the Crawford Investment Counsel website
that is for Consultant & Investment Professional Use Only.
You are now leaving the Crawford Investment Funds website and accessing the
Ultimus Fund Solutions website.
You are now entering the area of the Crawford Investment Counsel website
that is for Endowment & Foundation Use Only.